The Birth Rate is Crashing. Should We Worry?

The Great Recession in 2008-2009 started a downward trend in the birth rate. The slide continued until we hit an all-time low in fertility 2020. That’s surprising since people were quarantined at home and should’ve been more active in the slap & tickle department.

The US population hit a record low the following year. Not good. So, will the next generation buck the fertility trend in order to save Social Security and Medicare before it goes bankrupt? Hold that thought for 120 seconds.

First, let’s look at some of the macro trends of the birth dearth. On a macro level, the US birth rate has been declining since Dwight D. Eisenhower was living in the White House. So, this is not a new trend. But, it’s getting worse every year.

According to a Pew Charitable Trust study, forty-three states reported lower fertility rates in 2022. The last time their fertility rates were this low, Rachel and Monica had just moved in together on Friends. The only state to buck the last decade’s trend: North Dakota. (Insert jokes about the weather in North Dakota here.)

Can We Be Saved By The Migrants?

Over 7 million mainly hispanic immigrants have crossed the border under President Biden. That’s more than the population of 36 states. But the good news is that hispanic women have much higher fertility rates than black or white Americans. So, can this mass migration reverse the birth dearth? No, it won’t correct the trend. Why?

Once hispanic populations assimilate, their fertility rates quickly temper to match the non-Hispanic populations. Those states with the sharpest decline in fertility are those with large hispanic populations.

The Next Generation

But, Tom, what about the next generation? The so-called Generation Z (Gen Z) kids born between 1997-2012? Could they reverse the trend? Maybe, but here’s something you should know.

Part of the reason for the falling birth rate is that people are not getting married. There are a record number of people between the ages of 25-54 who are un-partnered. While it’s not impossible for an un-partnered person to have a child, it does make it more challenging.

Lonely, Lazy Asexual Men

Our young men today are more than twice as likely as young women to be unattached, asexual and lonely. I wrote about this earlier in a piece called The Laziest Generation in American History and The Friendless American Male. This asexual trend applies to both heterosexual and LGB males.

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Sexual Identification & Confusion

In a recent study the next generation identified as 22.8% LGBTQ+ or something other than heterosexual. That’s roughly 3x the rate of all other American adults (7.6%). 

And, many Gen Z’ers identify as more than one of the LGBtQ+ categories. So, someone could identify as Gay and Transgender at the same time.

The most common LGBTQ+ status among the Gen Z cohort is bi-sexual. A little over 15% of the next generation identifies as bi-sexual. Women are nearly three times more likely than men to identify as bi-sexual. Men are more likely to simply identify as gay.

“Hey Boomer”

The most logical comparison is to look at the generation that got us out of the last birth dearth after WWII. Those Baby Boomers are only 2.3% LGBTQ+. That’s 11x less than the Gen Z cohort. Those Boomers identifying as bi-sexual barely move the needle at less than 1%.

Before you start sending me hate mail, I’m not saying that Gen Z kids identifying as LGBTQ+ or bi-sexual can’t have children. But, can we agree that they’re less likely than heterosexual kids to reproduce at a level equivalent to the Boomers? The average Boomer had 3.62 crumb snatchers. Most hetero couples don’t want 3.62 children.

Terminating Pregnancy

Regardless of your opinion on abortion, it would be “writing malpractice” to ignore the impact of abortion. The simple truth is that legally induced medical abortion in the US has plummeted. According to the Guttmacher Institute, legally induced medical abortion in the US peaked in 1990 at 1.6 million. In 2023, that number dropped to approximately 930,000 or a 65% reduction.

Teen Pregnancy & Abortion

The rate of legally induced teen abortion is crashing. In 1973 the teen abortion rate was 23 per 1,000 teens. Today that number is closer to 10 per 1,000 teens.

Teen Pregnancy & Abortion (US) Age 15-19

So, what is causing this dramatic reduction in abortion? I’m glad you asked. Part of the answer is better education and access to contraceptives.

But, there is a better answer. And, it’s gonna be hard for you to understand. Younger adults just aren’t having sex. You heard that correctly. In 2022, 28% of all 18-30 year olds reported having no sex in the past year. See, if you’re not “bumping uglies” you can’t get pregnant.

Plan B (and C)

Emergency contraception was approved by the FDA in 1999 for those who are having unprotected sex. These oral emergency contraceptives (Plan B) are most effective when taken within 72 hours of unprotected intercourse. They’re available over-the-counter at most drug stores for less than $50.

Abortion Through Tele-Medicine

The FDA first approved mifepristone (Mifeprex) a single pill for legal termination of pregnancy in September 2000. The pill can be used at up to ten weeks of gestation. 

Earlier this year, the FDA approved the distribution of mifepristone through retail pharmacies, like CVS and Walgreens with a prescription. The pill is also available through various Tele-health providers. The cost may vary, but the pill retails for around $80.

I think we can both agree that the Plan B and the Mifepristone option are mostly to blame for the crashing medical abortion rate. But, I bet we can also agree that easy access to these at-home options are at least partially to blame for the crashing birth rate.

Legal Abortions in the US Since 1970

We Are Not Alone

This birth dearth problem isn’t limited to the US. Europe is struggling with crashing birth rates, as well. But, the home of Feta cheese and Greek salad is the poster child. Last year Greece reported the lowest number of births in 92 years. Next month they plan to start providing cash benefits and affordable housing for those doing the “horizontal refreshment”.

But, Greece is not alone. France, Italy, Norway and Spain have spent billions of euros on pro-child measures. So far, none of this social engineering has moved the needle on the birth rate.

The Big Finish

Okay, let’s quickly summarize our conversation about the crashing birth rate. First, the US birth rate has been crashing since Buddy Holly decided to go flying. Second, while 7.3 million migrants have crossed the border, they’re unlikely to move the needle. Third, young people aren’t having sex and people aged 25-54 are not getting married. Fourth, the Gen Z kids are 22.8% LGBTQ+ and 15% identify as bi-sexual. Fifth, legal abortion at-home (up to 10 weeks) is partially to blame for the falling medical abortion and birth rate. Lastly, we are not alone. Europe is also experiencing record-low fertility, with Greece serving as the proverbial poster child for the European birth dearth. What we need is for marriage to be one cool again. I wrote about that here.

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