There is a violent cultural shift coming. You can’t see it yet, but it’s rolling down the track like a speeding freight train. When it hits, it will reverberate across the land like rolling thunder on a late summer evening.

These kinds of cultural shifts happen, as Hemingway said, “gradually, then suddenly.”

Okay, Tom, what’s the violent cultural shift and when is it gonna happen? (Calm down, I gotta build up the anticipation a bit more.)

Fewer People Getting Married

First, did you know that fewer people are getting married in the US? It’s true. Statistics show that the number of “Never Married” adults is at an all-time high.

It makes you wonder, is marriage dead?

Flip of a Coin

This isn’t surprising data since we all know that 50% of marriages end in divorce, right? After all, would you jump out of a perfectly good airplane if your parachute only had a 50% chance of opening? Me neither.

Let me ask you this—what would you think if I told you that the 50% divorce statistic isn’t correct? What if I told you it doesn’t accurately represent the number of divorces in the US? (I doubt that would surprise you, though.)

The “Situationship”

It is true that people are staying single longer these days. In fact, the proliferation of dating apps and social media has created a brand new term: the situationship. It’s intended to suggest that you are dating someone, and there’s a sexual relationship, but no commitment.

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Age Is Just a Number

At the turn of the century, 124 years ago, nuptials were typically exchanged around age 26. Surprisingly, that’s also the average age of most people getting married in the year 2000. That’s right, 100 years later people are getting hitched at the exact same age. Hey, the US Census doesn’t lie about these things.

Surprised, aren’t you?

However, in 1900, the average life expectancy was only 47 years old, which meant that by the time you said your vows, 55% of your life was already over. In contrast, by the year 2000, with an average life expectancy of around 77 years, only 36% of your life had passed when tying the knot. So, while the kids are honeymooning at older ages in 2024, it’s the equivalent of getting married at age 17 in 1900. So, technically, people are getting married younger today than in 1900.

Silver Linings

The silver lining in this playbook is that fewer marriages mean fewer divorces. So, Tom, then why are 50% of marriages ending in divorce?

The simple truth is—they aren’t! That 50% statistic has been tossed around for years.

Yeah, it is true that the US divorce rate reached an all-time high in 1979 at 5.2 per 1,000 people. I guess all that disco music led to some shenanigans. But, to be clear, the divorce rate today is not 50% of all marriages.

Side note: Those who wed multiple times face a much greater chance of divorce. Second marriages fail 67% of the time. The third time is not the charm, either, as 73% of those fail. If you marry someone on their fourth, “you brought that on your own self, Ricky Bobby.”

A funny thing happened in 1980-1981, though. There was a Black Swan event. An event so rare and so memorable that it only comes along once in a lifetime, but has a lingering impact for generations.

That Black Swan event caused the divorce rate to peak and then begin a sharp decline. Today the divorce rate is 55% lower than in 1979. Nobody seems to share that statistic on marriage and divorce.

The 1980’s Called….

So, what happened in 1980-1981? Well, President Ronald Reagan was inaugurated, the Space Shuttle Challenger and Chernobyl exploded, CNN launched, the Berlin Wall fell, and John Lennon was assassinated. It was a busy year, but none of those were the Black Swan event.

The Black Swan event of 1980-1981, was the royal wedding of Prince Charles and Lady Diana Spencer that took place on Wednesday, July 29, 1981, at St Paul's Cathedral in London.

Americans watched those events unfold in real-time, which was around 5 am our time. For a moment, we had a glimpse of royalty—something we had rejected back in the late 1700s.

So, Tom, what about this violent cultural shift you speak of? What is the next Black Swan event that will change the world?

The Black Swan event will be an American Royal wedding…. and the birth of a royal heir.

Think of how our spirits might rise by focusing on something positive for the country for a change. How young women and girls might swoon over the Prince and imagine being a Princess in a wedding gown. How young men might see a role model making a lifetime commitment in front of God & country. Yes, our spirits would rise.

This Black Swan event could be the spark that ignites the violent cultural shift. A shift that makes weddings, marriages and having a family cool again with the younger set. A wedding that kills off the casual nature of situationships, in favor of a lifetime commitment.

Look, I know we don’t have American royalty. I know we don’t have a real Princess to marry off…..or do we?

However, I’m still holding out for the Black Swan event—an Epiphany, of sorts. A delicate, but enchanted, love story we know all too well. A story tying us all together with an invisible string.

This Black Swan event will take us back to marriage levels not seen since the 1970’s. And, we will all be better for it.

So, let’s recap what we’ve learned here. First, there is a violent cultural shift coming in the United States. Second, people are staying single much longer now. About 35% of all adults have never been married. Third, the age-old mantra that 50% of all marriages end in divorce is a lie. Only about 20% of adults have ever been divorced. Fourth, we need a Black Swan event to create this violent cultural shift back towards marriage and family. It is coming, and it may just change everything.

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