California vs. Florida: A Covid Report Card

The Atlantic magazine recently published an article entitled “Lets Declare a Pandemic Amnesty”, written by Emily Oster, an economist at Brown University. Oster suggested that we need to forgive one another for what we did and said when we were in the dark about COVID. The Twittersphere went nuts, with people calling for public tribunals for those who instituted public policy, but that’s typical for Twitter.

As grown-ass adults, we should be able to openly discuss public health policy. Not to hold executions of our public officials as Twitter suggests, but to determine the best way forward. And, we ought to be able to do that without fear of recrimination so that next time we are prepared to handle a public health emergency with a little more grace.

During the height of the pandemic, California and Florida presented two very disparate approaches to controlling the spread. California is the fifth largest economy in the world, so one might argue that their aggressive lockdowns were necessary. Florida is the 15th largest economy in the world. It remained largely open after the initial lockdowns. This is important because in about 15 minutes the governors of those states are gonna be in a slug fest for the 2024 Presidency. So, which state faired better?

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) released a retrospective study of the pandemic. It compares state outcomes by education, mortality and economy. There are some remarkable findings.

Let’s start with education.

The Nation’s Report Card publishes results of The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) standardized tests. The tests were first administered in 1969 and are the largest assessment of our nation’s educational progress, by state. It focuses on subjects such as mathematics, reading, science, and writing.

The results were dismal. Between 2019 and 2022, student’s math scores fell in every state and every school district in America. Even the highest performing students saw a reduction in test scores. These scores unwind decades of progress in standardized testing. In particular, math scores of underprivileged and minority children suffered the most, creating an even larger educational disparity for our most vulnerable children. Most private schools remained open during the Pandemic. Affluent children suffered far less than kids in public school systems. But, in aggregate, 40% of all eighth grade children failed to grasp basic math principles.

The impact is not limited to math. The nation’s reading scores dropped to levels not seen since 1992. Notably, not a single state in the US saw an increase in math or reading test scores. It’s the first objective measure of the damage done to our children by closing schools during the Pandemic. The experts agree. According to Peggy G. Carr, com­mis­sioner of the Na­tional Cen­ter for Ed­u­ca­tion Statistics, “COVID-19 shocked American education and stunted the academic growth” of American children.

California finished dead last in the amount of time that students spent in the classroom in 2020-2021, with only19.2% of all learning taking place in a real classroom. As a result, students performed significantly worse on state proficiency tests than previous years. Less than half of students met the state’s minimum threshold in the language arts. Only one-third of California students performed at the benchmark in math, a decline of 6.5 points. Florida, on the other hand, finished 3rd for classroom time. 96.2% of all education was completed in a real classroom.

So, how do fourth grade test scores compare for kids in California and Florida? In 2022, California fourth graders average math score was 230, while the US average was 235. Florida’s fourth graders average math score was 241, which was higher than the national average, California and 34 other jurisdictions (states).

Other states with more classroom time also produced higher standardized test scores than California. But, the impact is not limited to fourth graders. The high school graduation rate for 2022 in California was 83.9% while Florida graduated 88.5% of it’s high school Seniors. So, more classroom time also resulted in a higher graduation rate.

The ACT is a standardized exam used to measure preparedness for college. Over 1.3m students completed the exam in 2022. The national average score for the class of 2022 plummeted. The test performance was the lowest composite score in 30 years.

It gets worse. 40% of high school graduates failed to meet ACT benchmarks for college readiness. That includes math, science, English and reading.

So, Florida clearly beats California for education outcomes. But, what about mortality? Did more people die in Florida as a result of their free-wheeling approach?

Mortality

Florida was the first state to re-open following the initial lockdowns. Many felt that the state was being wreckless, particularly given the concentration of older folks in Florida.

Florida’s average age is 5.5 years older than California. So, California has a clear advantage based on age. The NBER study ranks Florida 28th in Covid-19 mortality; California finished 27th. So what does this mean? It means that keeping California schools closed 96.2% of the time did not save lives when compared to Florida. A surprising outcome given the significant age differential between the states.

Another way to look at mortality is to compare the “All-Cause” mortality rate, not just Covid-19 mortality. That allows for the natural inclusion of deaths resulting from higher drug and alcohol deaths, deaths of despair and other deaths related to being quarantined. Amazingly, California finished 33rd and Florida finished 34th. The enhanced lockdown measures in California had no impact on their overall mortality rate.

Economy

During the pandemic, California sported the 47th worst unemployment rate in the country. Florida ranked 15th for state unemployment. But, which state delivered the goods from an overall economic standpoint? According to the survey, Florida ranked 13th in the country. Impressive given their heavy reliance on the tourism industry for revenue. With it’s booming agriculture, film & television and technology sectors, California trailed in a distant 40th place. As the study suggests, “there is no apparent relationship between reduced economic activity during the pandemic and our composite mortality measure.”

In fact, the study found a direct correlation between the amount of classroom time allowed and the economic performance of the state. States with fewer restrictions had greater economic performance and better health scores.

Another performance metric is whether families are migrating to or from the state. From 2010 -2020, California saw an exodus of families looking for something different. Meanwhile. Florida saw an equivalent number of families arriving in the sunshine state.

But, do California’s tight restrictions and poor outcomes translate to other states? The states of New York and New Jersey we’re also tight lockdown states. They were also among the worst performers in all three categories: mortality, economy, and education.

Conversely, the states of Utah, Nebraska and Vermont were the least restrictive. They were leaders in all three categories. But, Utah wins the prize for the highest scores in all three categories in the continental United States.

So, when the next Presidential election cycle begins, be sure to revisit this article. While often criticized for being “too relaxed” during the pandemic, Florida proved to have average mortality while maintaining stellar economic activity. And, Florida kept schools open 96% of the time. If I have to choose between the two palm tree states during the next Pandemic, I’m moving to Florida.

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