The Deadliest Year in American History

According to the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, 2020 was the deadliest year in American history. The combination of Covid-19 and an increase in the national murder rate simply wreaked havoc on public health.

That is, until 2021 when an additional 80,000 people died, bringing the total annual death rate to 3.465 million lives.

But, while deaths from Covid-19 are falling, the nation’s murder rate continues to rise. So what is causing the rapid increase in deaths from violent crime?

Let’s dive into this and see if we can learn something together.

Instead of contemplating the root causes of crime, our politicians have wasted the last few years arguing about whether the police are, in fact, the problem. Loud voices have argued about whether we should collectively defund the police.

Fast forward to today and it’s hard to find a politician that will admit to having supported that proposition. But throughout much of 2020 and 2021 the calls for defunding were deafening.

During that same time period, police turnover skyrocketed. Ostensibly due to a reduction in morale coinciding with the Defund the Police movement. Additionally, recruiting qualified law enforcement candidates is more challenging as fewer people want to become police officers. Morale of police officers dropped further as major, metropolitan cities ended cash bail. In theory, the cash-based bail system criminalizes poverty by penalizing those who cannot afford to put up the cash necessary for bail. It rewards more affluent criminals who can afford to put up cash for large bail bonds. Many cities now simply require a promise to return for a future court hearing. Their signature serves as a bond. While signature bonds seem more equitable, it has a negative impact on police morale. Police arrest criminals and take them to jail only to see them back on the streets within hours- committing new crimes.

Crime Rates

Overall crime rates in every major metropolitan city exploded from 2020-2021. For example, in Chicago, more than 1,800 carjackings were reported last year. It’s the most of any large city and the most on record over the last 20 years. In New York City, carjackings quadrupled over the past four years. It recorded more than 500 carjackings in 2021, up from 328 in 2020, 132 in 2019, and 112 in 2018.

The Great Migration

Meanwhile, many Americans began to explore the cost/benefit analysis of living in a major city. Is it truly worth the risk of crime, high taxes and the headache? Statistics show Americans answered that question with a resounding “no”. Americans started a massive migration to smaller, less crime ridden locations.

It sparked what some are calling the great migration. Idaho topped the list at Atlas Van Lines for the most inbound moves in 2020. Meanwhile, Manhattan saw its population plunge by 110,958 or 6.9% between July 2020 and July 2021. Los Angeles County, the largest county in the US, lost 159,620 residents.

Granted, some of this outflow was a result of overzealous Covid-19 restrictions, but rising crime was a major factor in these life changing migrations. States with the largest number of outbound moves are listed below.

Murder, She Wrote

As Americans adjusted to the lockdown, police turnover skyrocketed and the overall crime rate increased. The nation’s murder rate began a steep climb.

While signature bonds and weakening resolve to prosecute criminals are partially to blame, there are larger demographic forces at play. The single greatest predictor of crime is the number of young males in the population. Statistics show that about six percent of young men become career criminals.

The most likely age to commit murder in the United States is age 20-24. Between 2000 and 2020, the US Census Bureau reported an increase of 1,315,086 lives in the age 20-24 cohort.

That resulted in an additional 78,905 violent criminals on the street. It’s sadly one of the reasons for the rising murder rate.

According to FBI data, murders increased by 30% in 2020. It was the largest single increase in FBI history. The murder rate in the black community grew by 32% verses 2019.

To put these statistics into perspective, 7,484 black Americans were murdered in 2019. One year later (2020), another 2,457 human beings were murdered. That increase is the equivalent of 50 full Greyhound buses.

According to academic studies, Black homicide rates are seven to eight times those of whites. And, homocide is the leading cause of death of young black men. The homicide rate is so high that it is actually shortening the life span of all black males.

We are on par to lose 10,000 black men to violent crime in 2022. How can we not be sounding the loudest possible alarm in the country? The murder rate among black men has nearly doubled since 2010.

The Elephant in the Room

Over 22.8 million guns were purchased in 2020, which set an all-time record. US civilians now own 393 million guns. That’s around 1.25 firearms per US citizen.

Our evening news is littered with shootings and murders so frequent that we’ve become desensitized to the violence. It’s certainly not limited by race. But, black Americans are disproportionately impacted by gun violence. It is estimated that black Americans encounter 10 times the gun homicides that whites experience. And, assaults from guns that lead to injury are 18 times more likely. Black Americans are 3 times more likely to die in fatal police shootings. It is the pandemic’s lasting legacy, with no solution in sight.

The frequency and casualness of murder in our major cities should be our number one priority. But, it isn’t. Our news media still subscribes to “if it bleeds it leads,” but I think we’ve simply grown numb to the senseless violence and death on our screens.

According to FBI Director, Christopher Wray, there was also a 59% increase in murders of police officers in 2020. It was the deadliest year on record with 73 officers murdered in the line of duty. That’s roughly one police murder every five days. Wray appeared on CBS 60 Minutes to address the rising wave of violent crime in America.

One wonders if today’s gunfight is yesterday’s fist fight. Meaning that most boys grew up learning that you always want to throw the first punch if a fist fight can’t be avoided. Except today many have replaced the fist with a gun, and the punch with a bullet. In certain settings it has become kill or be killed.

Wray’s appearance coincides with the release of alarming data from the New England Journal of Medicine indicating that firearm related injuries surpassed motor vehicle crashes as the leading cause of death for children and teens in 2020.

Deaths from firearms among children ages 1-19 jumped 29.5% from 2019-2020. That is double the rate of increase in the general population.

A few days ago in Atlanta, the news validated this finding. It seems two boys got into an argument at a local skating rink. One boy, age 13, pulled a handgun and shot 11-year-old D\’Mari Johnson in the head. He remains in a medically induced coma today.

But the violence is not limited to children. A few days later, 51 year old security guard Anthony Frazier was arriving to work. A gunman with a history of 12 prior arrests approached from behind and shot Frazier in the back of the head at point-blank range. The gunman then proceeded to steal his wallet and empty the man’s pockets as he lay dying on the sidewalk. It was all caught on a survellience camera. Afterwards he casually walked away. Two bystanders wandered on to the scene and continued to rummage through the dying man’s pockets. Nobody stopped to render help to the dying man.You can watch the video below if you have a strong stomach.

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The Road to Jericho

It’s hard to hear that horrific story without recalling the parable of the Good Samaritan in the gospel of Luke. We are traveling on that same road to Jericho, are we not? That same road where a man was robbed, beaten and stripped and left to die. Are we not the Levite and the Jewish man, casually passing by the dying man? Who is the Samarite in the midst of all this violence and murder? Who will save us from ourselves?

We watch murder after murder on the evening news and we do nothing but wring our hands. We’ve become the Jewish priest and the Levite. Barely pausing to take notice before we lose interest and move on to sports and weather. Surely this is not how Jesus expected Christians to inherit eternal life in the face of such violence.

Those on the political left would argue that we need to ban high capacity magazines and perform background checks at gun shows. Maybe. Those on the political right would argue that any limits on the sale of handguns is a violation of our second amendment rights. Or, that more handguns are the answer. I love the simplicity of these positions, but it proves just how difficult this issue really is. With 338 million guns, we cannot put a band-aid on this epidemic. No, the solution is much, much more difficult.

The United States has the highest rate of gun violence in the world. Americans are 25 times more likely to die from a gun homicide than other developed countries.

The solution lies in some combination of more rigorous requirements for owning firearms, enacting gun-violence restraining orders, investing in smart-gun technology, disarming domestic abusers and supporting local violence prevention and intervention programs.

Our leaders need to stop playing politics and begin to intelligently address this public health epidemic. Do you have any other ideas that might help solve this problem?

This is tough stuff so I need to hear from you. Tell me what you think, below. And, please do me a favor and forward this article to a few friends who might want to join the debate.

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